Every word or action of the US, Russia and Saudi leaders can determine the development of crude oil.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lost control of the global oil market. At the moment, the President of the United States Donald Trump, Russian President – Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Mohammad Bin Salman – every action or tweet is a decisive factor in the direction of oil prices next year and later. no longer. But, of course, each has a different purpose.
While OPEC countries seek to find a common ground, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia dominate global resources. The total output is more than 15 members of the OPEC. All three countries are pumping oil at record speeds and may continue to increase production next year. However, it may not be the same for all three.
In June, Saudi Arabia and Russia were the pioneers calling on OPEC and other countries to loosen production restriction policies in force since the beginning of 2017. current record level. At the same time, the American production rose abruptly, as the Texan mining company solved the problem of oil pipeline transportation.
This increase coupled with lower oil demand growth and the fact that Trump allowed eight countries to continue to buy oil from Iran in the second half of the year caused it to overestimate the market in just three months. .
Oil stocks in the developed countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which have been declining since the beginning of 2017, are rising again and seem to exceed the five-year average period. International Energy Agency (IEA). Oil prices have lost more than 20% in just 6 weeks.
Saudi Arabia is expected to reduce its exports by 500,000 barrels next month. They also warned that other nations should cut one million barrels a day in October, the president did not notice President Putin's attention, and President Trump was critical.
Bin Salman needs oil revenues to finance the ambitious Saudi reform plan. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the kingdom needs $ 73.3 to stabilize the budget.
However, Brent pulp is still less than this $ 10. Saudi Arabia's oil exports are also being sold at discounted prices. Extending the downtime in production in the third year is the only way to pull the price up to the level it needs.
Still, the plan faces the challenges of Putin and Trump. The Russian president is not very eager to reduce production again. Russia's oil prices are much less dependent on oil prices than in 2016, when they agreed with OPEC countries to reduce rebalancing of the oil market. Russian oil companies also want to use the oil fields they invest.
Perhaps Putin decided not to sacrifice a little to establish a good political relationship with the Saudi Prince. However, no one can know at this time that the output of Russia will meet in Vienna next month. Mr. Putin said he was glad the oil price was close to $ 70.
Trump's opposition to Saudi Arabia is larger. Saudi Arabia is trying to preserve the political ties of the two countries after the US senator deliberately punished the country because of the war in Yeman and the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
He is worried about Saudi Arabia, Texas operations, except for Trump's tweets. Over the past 12 months, US companies have increased oil production with full output from Nigeria. The US Department of Energy may reach US $ 12 million a barrel in April next year, compared to six months ago.
In short, experts say that Saudi Arabia will have to deal with a series of challenges in order to balance the oil market next year. This is Putin's indifference to Trump's opposition and the explosion of American shale oil.
According to Vnexpress