If you're wondering how much oil prices are responsible for the drop in oil prices in the last month, you just have to look at drivers around the world.
RBOB gasoline futures in Nymex, which is usually higher than raw material and oil, are being traded against Brent for the first time since 2011.
A similar situation took place in Singapore, where RON 92 gasoline was cheaper than Tapis crude oil in recent weeks, and after the explosion exploded at the end of 2013, a major oil sale took place in 2014.
This is not a disaster for refineries, which can balance gasoline losses with the profits of better performing products such as diesel. However, the rise in oil prices in 2018 and the weakening of the currencies are indicative of the fact that consumers in emerging markets are at risk of disclosing the demand strike.
Prices for main gasoline products in Thailand, the Philippines and India have fallen since the beginning of October. However, this has not yet been sufficient to provoke re-activation in demand. According to S & P Global Platts, lightly distilled stocks, including gasoline in the Persian Gulf, have reached record levels in Fujairah harbor for three consecutive weeks.
The problem is that the world has the lightest crude oil available to produce gasoline and very few of the heavier varieties that are better for diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil.
Extracts from the oil region in West Texas in America are mainly light and sweet. On the other hand, the most severe oil sources face challenges: while Mexico's production has been declining for ten years, Venezuela has been on the brink of collapse and the lack of export capacity on oil pipelines has led to Western Canada Select crude oil. under US $ 20 per barrel.
It is a sign of the US refineries' desperation in obtaining more crude oil than the Maya's crude oil. We are currently negotiating a negotiation with West Texas West West oil, an abnormal situation that has not occurred since 2013.
It is not clear that this situation will be resolved soon. The increase in gasoline in Fujairah indicated that traders expect to move from America and Europe to Asian markets with high demands, while Chinese car sales have declined. Electric vehicles are increasing their market share and traditional passenger car purchases have peaked.
The outlook may be better in India and Southeast Asia, but gasoline reductions compared to oil prices in Singapore show that fuel retailers do not think they have created an increase in demand for liquidation.
Meanwhile, the next year is facing a major problem: the International Maritime Organization is expected to replace fuel oil with a higher medium fuel consumption, with pending regulations on the sulfur content in fuel used in maritime transport. Heavier and polluting. Meeting the demand with the sweet mix of crude oil, which is now available all over the world, will mean that the world will produce more gasoline as it does not want.
At the moment, the balance between a tight market and excess supply surplus for medium distillates reduces crude oil prices. However, we should not exclude the possibility that the average products of crude oil will become a more important factor in prices. Or the low prices at gas stations, thanks to the huge sales last month, allow people to return to driving.
By David Fickling
This column does not reflect the views of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.