According to a report, the chances of getting second place as the hottest of the year are around 85%.
According to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this week, the probability of becoming the second or third hottest calendar year on the planet has been increasing since the start of modern temperature data collection in 1880.
This reflects the increasing impact of long-term, human-induced global warming, which is particularly striking as there is no strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean this year. Such events are typically associated with the hottest years because they increase global ocean temperatures and add a great deal of heat to the atmosphere in the world's largest Pacific Ocean.
According to a new report released on Monday, there is a 85% chance that NOAA will rise to the second hottest position in the data set, with a 3% chance of shifting. We believe 2019 will be the fifth-fifth year in the world.
NOAA found that the average global land and ocean surface temperature in October was 1.76 degrees (0.98 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average, and that only 0.11 degrees of the record temperature set in 2015 was shy.
Remarkably, the hottest 10 Octobers have taken place since 2003, and the hottest first five months have taken place since 2015.
October 2019 was 43rd October, a warmer month than the 438th straight average of the 20th century average. This means that no one under the age of 38 lives from a globally cooler year than average.
So far this year, global land and ocean temperatures have risen to 1.69 degrees (0.94 degrees Celsius) above the average of the 20th century, only 0.16 degrees cooler than the hottest record of the year set by the NOAA set in 2016.
Other organizations that monitor their overall temperatures may rank 2019 slightly differently from NOAA, although their overall data may be similar. For example, NASA interpolates temperatures sparsely over the Arctic, assuming that temperatures across the region are similar to the nearest observation locations. On the other hand, NOAA excludes parts of the Arctic from their data.
Given that the Arctic is more than twice the temperature of the rest of the world, this means that NOAA's data may slightly underestimate global temperatures.
Regarding the differences between monitoring institutions, the Copernican Climate Change Service of the European Union ranked second in October as the world's hottest month of October 2016 and NASA and NOAA ranked second in October. .
Copernicus uses computer modeling data to monitor planetary climate in real time, which may be prone to biases and other issues involving sensitive locations, compared to superficial weather stations trusted by NASA and NOAA. However, both institutions are trying to regulate their records to address such problems.
At the end of the day, it can only be explained by the increasing amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, which indicate that the long-term trend over the years is important and that there is a clear and sharp increase by scientists. atmosphere.
Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil for energy, are the main additives of greenhouse gases.
According to NOAA, there were warm sowing temperatures in parts of the North and West Pacific Ocean, scattered throughout the Southeast Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and parts of South America.
The only region with a cold during the month was in the western United States, where most of the Rockies had a cold during the month. Interestingly, although there was no El Niño declared in the tropical Pacific, global average sea surface temperatures ran below a tenth of a tenth behind the record year of peak intensity in 2016, reaching the highest of the month. The El Niño thing.
The oceans absorb most of the excess heat pumped into the climate system due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, with the heat content measured below the surface hit record levels.
(With the exception of the title, this story is not edited by NDTV staff and is published from the union broadcast.)
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