ABU DHABI – The rise in oil prices and the emergence of a global over-supply allow manufacturers to move closer to the process of reducing outputs.
Saudi representatives said on Sunday that the kingdom would cut its exports unilaterally in the coming months, even though a broader OPEC alliance was discussed – but not a joint production outage.
On the other hand, Russia, the world's largest producer, has sent mixed signals about whether the supply will be withdrawn after having been locked in such matters for more than two years with OPEC.
The Russians K let you guess, “U.K. consulting company Alfa Energy. “They like to be responsible.“
Russia's oil minister Alexander Novak said that the coalition is open to raw production cuts if it reaches a compromise and if it complies with any decision it makes. However, Russian production "reached a certain level that we are balancing and we will fluctuate at this level in the coming months".
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers met at the weekend in the United Arab Emirates to discuss whether an annual reduction of about one million barrels a year would be necessary if the OPEC meeting is expected.
Russia, which is the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, chaired an alliance of Saudi Arabia and non-cartel producers, was in a meeting that Iran would cause sanctions for Iran due to its sanctions against the US. agreed to increase.
Three days after the sanctions came into force on November 5, US oil entered a bear market. And Brent Crude's global comparison has fallen more than $ 10 a barrel since late last September when OPEC and Russia's leading partners met in Algeria. . In the same period, US oil prices fell by 21% to $ 60.
Last week, the United States said the increase in oil prices would allow eight countries to impose sanctions on Iran, allowing Iran to continue buying crude oil. Following the reproduction of US oil stocks, sales continued to increase as production increased and fuel demand weakened. US prices fell to 10 straight sessions until Friday, the longest loss line since 1984.
In Russia, state oil companies have invested heavily in increasing oil production in recent years, which has made it difficult to reverse any production. The fiscal discipline means that the Russian federal budget will be offset by $ 53 per barrel in 2018 and towards a $ 44 break in two years.
Only a few months ago, many OPEC delegates, concerned about a global market without Iranian oil, are interested in many different concerns over the next year.
Omani Oil Minister Mohammad bin Hamad al-Rumhy, after leaving his Sunday meeting, told The Wall Street Journal, bin There is a consensus that there will be over-supply in 2019. He said coalition producers would agree to cut supplies in Vienna next month.
Khalid al-Falih, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, said earlier that an hour ago, the kingdom had already planned to cut its output independently of any collective production. ”You will see a sharpening,“ he said.
However, Mr. Falih said it was too early to say that the combined coalition he met next month would be agreed. The group added that l it will not hesitate to make a deduction, but only if necessary devam and that # over-supply will continue until 2019 Grup.
He said, Emir a new strategy needs to be set, bir said Emirati oil minister Suhail El Mazroui, who led the OPEC. "There will be no increase in production, whether it is a piece or something else," he said.
Although not unusual, Saudi Arabia's unilateral export cuts, independent of any collective decision, emerged as a Saudi-backed think tank predicting a life without OPEC. The King Abdullah Petroleum Research and Research Center, reported by the Wall Street Journal last week, is working on a scenario in which the cartel will be distributed.
Sever Thinking organizations like to think. Iz We will not stop thinking about them, ”said Mr. Falih of Saudi Arabia. “We want them to think about all the scenarios.“
However, he said, he is speaking on behalf of the Saudi leadership. [KAPSARC] The combination of cooperation and extreme volatility will show the best for the market.