The data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics on the foreign trade of Latvia shows that in September this year, the export value of goods fell for the first time in the last six months. In September, exports of goods were generally high and exceeded one billion euros higher than the other months of this year, although exports of goods were 1% lower than in September last year.
The small total export decline of the FM was announced this fall with a previously predicted decrease in grain and rapeseed exports due to weak grain products and a decline in re-exports for some electrical equipment and mechanical devices. Göre Excluding the decline in exports of these goods, total exports in September will be 3.9% higher than in September of the previous year, Bakanlık the ministry said.
In September, the largest negative impact on the change in the value of exports of goods for the agricultural and food products group was observed, mainly due to the decline in grain and rapeseed exports. Traditionally, the largest amount of grain and rape exports can be seen in the autumn months, but the export value of these goods in September this year was 3.8% and 76.8% respectively, compared to the same month of the previous year.
"Unexpected dry weather in Latvia this summer had a negative impact on the harvest harvest volume, which had an impact on the harvest data, and the export value of these products is likely to be lower in other autumn months. , said.
The decline in exports in September was slightly offset by a 17.7% increase in exports of wood and wood products, which was affected by the increase in timber exports in Estonia and the United Kingdom and by the increase in exports of unprocessed timber to Sweden.
"Although exports of wood for wood products have reached the highest export value since 1995, this commodity export group has been the main driver of exports in the first nine months of 2018 and has made the greatest contribution to the increase in exports. compared to an increase of 8.3%, slightly more than a third of the increase in wood exports.
Among other commodity groups affected by export changes in September, FM has recorded an increase of 8.7% in chemical product exports in connection with the growth of pharmaceutical exports to Lithuania. 7.9% increase in exports of metal, iron and steel exports of Turkey & # 39; to the increase of the iron and non-alloy steel exports to the European Union (EU) was due to the increase in the bar made their home countries.
, While evaluating the outlook for the development of exports in the medium term, negative risks have increased since the beginning of this year, and the growth of exports has been limited to the uncertainty surrounding the global environment in connection with the rise of protectionist world trade. and it was economical. The ministry said that the sensitivity index in October this year has reached its lowest level since mid-year, and that the Latvian industry's assessment of the product outlook in the fourth quarter of this year slightly deteriorated compared to the previous quarter.
Similarly, FM acknowledged that the factors determining the decline in exports in September were not related to the decline in foreign demand. However, the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Report, which was renewed in October, declined by 4.2 percentage points to 4.2% in the world trade volume for the current year, compared to the projections of this year's July. This is explained by the increase in protectionist world trade.
The IMF has already reduced the IMF's global trade growth in previous economic forecasts, which were re-launched in July this year. This has led to the conclusion that the risks to foreign trade of the world have only intensified since the middle of this year. As a result, the growth rate of Latvian goods exports increased in the coming months. The FM will decrease by 8.3% in the first nine months of this year and will be lower than the average growth rate. "said.