If there is still no spark, the tricolor growth engine continues to mumble. Absolutely, absolutely. However, at an astonishing rate of stability, it is not very sensitive to the turbulence of the external environment. In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3%, according to data released by INSEE on Wednesday (October 30th). It is in line with the forecasts of Banque de France and INSEE, a figure equal to those previously recorded in the previous two quarters. Değil It's not breathtaking, but the French performance is very comforting in the face of international recession and the challenges of some of our neighbors ”Analyzes Ostrum AM's chief economist Philippe Waechter.
He says very little. Following a slight GDP contraction between April and June (-0.1%), Germany may fall into technical stagnation in the third quarter, while lowering the average growth of the eurozone, while the Italian stagnation is expected to continue. . “France's resistance is subject to less international trade, largely due to the structure of its economy” Pictet summarizes WM's economist Nadia Gharbi. As a matter of fact, exports of goods and services account for about 50% of GDP in Germany, while 31% in France, where growth is the main driver of domestic demand. Especially household consumption.
In the third quarter, sales increased by 0.1 points quarter-on-quarter to 0.3%. "Purchasing power gains in recent months remain inadequate"BNP Paribas observes economist Hélène Baudchon. It is a surprising shift to be stronger than observed in previous processes. In the cautious ants, the French were inflating their woolen socks a bit, worrying about suspicions about the world economy. "But at the same time, you probably face uncertainties about pension reforms and unemployment insurance" Note the French Economic Conditions Observatory (OFCE) economists based on their latest estimates. Thus, the saving rate increased to 14.8% of households' gross disposable income, in the second quarter of 2019: slightly below the previous rate (15.2%), but more than 14.2% in 2018. also.
Of course, purchasing power slowed slightly in the second quarter (-0.2%), following a 0.8% increase between January and March. However, by December (especially due to the second wave of housing tax reduction), it should increase again by 2.3% (versus 1.2% in 2018) over the whole year. According to INSEE. According to OFCE, this will be the largest increase since 2007, equivalent to an increase of 800 euros per household. " A noticeable improvement, partly fruit good performance of the labor market "Gives Mr. Waechter a note. In the first half of the year, according to INSEE, 166,000 jobs were created, especially in services (except temporary jobs) and construction. If the pace should slow down slightly in the second part (+ 98,000), the unemployment rate continues despite the decline: to 8.5% in the spring, still at 8.3% by the end of 2019 INSEE is pulling revenues up.
In recent months, purchasing power has also been supported by government measures, partly in response to the "yellow vests" movement. Reduction in employee contributions, decrease in housing tax, increase in operating premiums, tax exemption for overtime … OFCE has determined all of these socio-financial measures as 12 billion euros for 2019. Reverso Medal: France will struggle to get into Brussels' budget nails. The government accounts for a banking deficit above 3.1% of GDP in 2019 (versus 2.5% in 2018), above the symbolic 3% mark.
A good surprise for the third quarter came from rapidly growing commercial investments: 0.6% in the first quarter and + 1.2% after a significant increase of 1.1% in the first quarter. second. According to Banque de France, SMEs are particularly benefiting from low borrowing rates to purchase IT services: in September, investment loans increased by 7.3% as in August.
If they export, they recovered after the second quarter vent (-0.1%) (-0.3%). Ilar Weakened by the slowdown in our biggest trading partner, Germany ” Hélène Baudchon says. Imports rose again by 1.4%, while the contribution of foreign trade to growth was negative (-0.4 points) against 0.5 points of domestic demand. stock).
Increase in purchasing power
Under these circumstances, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), growth should be 1.3% during the year and 1.2% in 2020. “France should therefore grow above the euro zone average for the first time in six years” OFCE highlights. The GDP of the monetary union is unlikely to grow by more than 1.1% this year.
Next year, investment expenditures are expected to fall, especially for businesses. In particular, if the uncertainties regarding Brexit, whose theoretical date has been postponed to January 31, still persist – not to mention the Chinese-US trade war. Public administrations should also tighten their bags as usual after the municipal elections. According to Rexecode Institute, investment expenditures decreased to 1% in 2020, 3.6% this year and 2.4% in 2018.
If the increase in purchasing power has to stop next year, it can instead provide a wider benefit in consumer consumption. According to Banque de France, it should rise to 1.7% in 2020 after 1.3% this year. More optimistic, Rexecode expects to grow by 1.9%. In this way, the French growth once again tenth points should pass the euro zone …
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