In recent years, the United States has amazed the world, which has become the world's largest oil producer, a remarkable face for a country where it has stepped back from relying on expensive imported raw materials ten years ago. So why is it so difficult to convert the so-called energy sovereignty from the so-called rhetoric to reality?
President Donald Trump's tweet-disgust with oil-roller rollercoaster in recent months, and efforts to improve the market by adjusting the amount of oil OPEC pumped, show many uneasiness in Washington when they see things like a large US energy the explosion, domination or independence promises.
But the truth is that the concept of energy domination is a hollow idea, as it has been repeatedly trumped by the government. Even America will be the best producer in the world, it will protect it from rising prices, get rid of the Middle East conflicts, drown and drown the enemies and create more foreign policy instruments.
The ultimate irony was what created the US energy revolution – private sector companies using new technologies to remove unused crude oil – allowing the United States to protect its energy power against Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major producers. There are state-owned companies willing to put geopolitics on profits.
Gel Ironically, the exact power of the US energy sector – not a government, but a market-driven ücü means that it's not a stick to beat people, gel said Bruce Jones, foreign policy director. The program at the Brookings Institute.
No one can deny the historical size and speed of America's transformation from energy importer to major producer and exporter. The United States currently produces 11.4 million barrels per day and expects more than 12 million barrels a year. Since the beginning of the devil explosion a decade ago, the United States had found a resource that had been stuck in the Iranian and North Dakota shale formations.
Geri This is a dramatic turnaround and economically and, to some extent, geopolitical benefits, ölçü said Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University's Global Energy Policy Center.
At least the economic benefits are a little more obvious. By producing more oil and making less imports from abroad, the energy boom helps provide US dollars at home in GDP. According to a recent study by IHS Markit, the US trade deficit – helping the US to reduce a dividend – about $ 250 billion – compared to the Chilean boom.
At the same time, all the extra barrels of American oil hanging around, even if they are not physically exported, are better able to provide the world as a whole, which means that poor geopolitical surprises lead to lower price increases than in the past. Jones described the US economy as a bir major shock absorber ”for the global economy.
And if many booster still seem to wait, there are some foreign policy benefits for the newly discovered US energy dominance. Although US natural gas production and exports have increased the market share of Russia in Moscow, it limited the possibility of meeting US customers in Europe among its European allies. And the fact that the US has produced and even exported oil in record amounts of oil offers a different way of establishing relations with neighbors, such as Mexico, who once feared the black gold of American designs.
. Our foreign policy saves us from dealing with other problems, politik said David Goldwyn, manager of Goldwyn Global Strategies. "In this sense, it is positive for the flexibility it provides."
However, none of them unifies the US against shocks in oil prices, or imposes their will against other countries, or they cannot add many arrows to their geopolitical tremor. No matter how much oil America produces, it is still a global oil market. This means that the price of gasoline in the United States is largely determined by almost 90 million barrels a day that are produced and consumed worldwide.
The United States is more vulnerable to the sudden pain in the pump due to lower taxes on fuel in most countries. This is the up-down price of crude oil, the United States' s gasoline prices compared to other countries have made an even larger driver, a senior state energy manager under Obama administration, said Goldwyn.
The biggest reality control for policy makers fascinated by America's record-breaking oil production is that its size is not that important. Saudi Arabia produces less oil every day from the US, but plays a major role in the world's oil market, which America will or will not do. This is because Saudi Arabia has much of its reserve production capacity in the world, and can be quickly deployed (or shut down) by ordering millions of barrels of oil to keep prices above a difficult Goldilocks level.
Bordoff, the White House energy consultant under Obama's administration, said the ability to turn the oil spout on or off on demand was the off real leverage Obama. Şey And this is not something that the United States has or probably will have. The real effect arises not only from how much you produce, but also from the ability to quickly add or remove resources, and indeed only in Saudi Arabia. "
He was able to withdraw from the market by imposing sanctions against the Trump administration's energy-driven foreign policy, ie, growing US production to fuel Iran's oil outrage, fueling price shock. From 2012 to 2015 and from this year, the US tried to put pressure on Iran by limiting the amount of oil it could export to finance its foreign policy agenda. In both cases, the barrels of millions of barrels of oil from the market were replaced by a US $ 1 million dollar barrel, whose prices were reasonable and limited to the local political blow.
However, larger US production is not a great alternative to hijacking Iranian barrels. For example, India is having trouble refining something other than Iranian crude oil. This explains why both Obama and Trump administrations are forced to continue to import Iranian oil by fueling the effectiveness of India's sanction campaign.
And examples of Iran do not mean that Washington may have its own oil power to use sanctions to abandon. In both cases, Iran's export restrictions coincided with a period of intense and rapid growth in US production. Even if US oil production reaches stratospheric levels next year and remains there, it is unlikely to continue to grow further. At this point, American oil production will be part of the global foundation, not the new and annual supply of new material, which limits Washington's ability to use oil sanctions as a lever in the future.
No matter how much oil the US pumps are, this US alone will not be included in the Middle East.
Decades ago, the United States was interested in maintaining stability in both Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf region as a lubricant for its own oil imports and for the global economy. While the United States imports less Persian Gulf oil, it is still investing heavily in protecting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, limiting instability in large oil-producing countries and protecting critical sea lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Dır Western concern is a stable oil market. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, said the Washington Institute's Gulf and energy policy program director Simon Henderson is very important and that electric cars are more common than gasoline ones.
This link between Saudi Arabia's importance in global supply and thus global prices is helping to explain why the United States cannot be avoided, sometimes by making bad agreements with unpleasant regimes.
Gel Shale oil means that the US's dependence on imports is now much less, but an increase in gasoline prices [from a Saudi supply shock] would not be very popular. That's why we should try to make a deal with the Saudis, bin said Henderson.