Monday , January 25 2021

Opec: Fat glut caution



On Tuesday, Opec warned about a jump in the global oil supply amid the decline of 700,000 barrels per day in demand forecasts for the next year. This strengthened the UAE and Saudi views on supply cuts to balance supply-demand ratio for 2019.

According to Opec's monthly report released on Tuesday, global oil demand will increase by 1.29 million barrels per day in 2019, which will be 700,000 barrels per month less than the previous month. Non-Opec, on the other hand, will increase by 120,000 to 2.23 million bp in the next year.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE said on Monday that oil supplies should be cut due to the increase in global stocks. US President Donald Trump urged Opec members not to cut off on Tuesday, as oil prices fell by 2 percent.

Most of next year's new supply will come from non-Opec members who will be released with 2.23 million bpd.

In 2018, oil demand growth is expected to increase by 1.5 million bpd year-on-year, down from the previous month by a decrease of 40,000 bpd, mainly from the Middle East and lower than expected. Q3 in the period of 2018. The expected total oil demand is expected to reach 98.79 million bpd.

Opec group will meet on December 6th in Vienna to determine the 2019 policy.

Anita Yadav, head of a fixed-income study at Emirates NBD, said that Opec and non-Opec members would increase the level of supply, global GDP growth rate, US dollar strength, geopolitical issues and sanctions that could affect oil supply from this region. Oil prices dictate next year.

Dubai-based Emirates NBD expects an oil price of $ 73 in 2018.

"Our expectation for oil prices in 2019 is similar – somewhere between $ 70 and $ 75. This assumes that demand will increase by about 1 percent per year," he said.

Manoj Krishnan, head of the private wealth at Continental Financial Services, thinks that the biggest problem for oil will be a trade war effect, which is now difficult to predict. "We need at least one to two quarters and we see the impact on the global economy."

Technically, before further clarification, prices are estimated to range from $ 65 to $ 73 per barrel for the first half of next year.

Jameel Ahmad, head of the global currency strategy and market research, said the consensus from the Opec meeting was that oil demand would be around 31.5 million barrels next year. 33-34 million barrels per day.

Den Actual production outputs at present may be higher than these levels. In general, oil conditions and the conditions around oil are unpredictable as these conditions change rapidly, so oil prices are so irregular in recent weeks. Genel

Ahmad said that demand could be one of the main factors that will determine the market volatility in the oil market towards the coming years.

He warned that warnings about slowing down economic growth are being published, which means that oil demand will be less in the coming year as a result of the slowdown in global economic conditions, but that this has not yet been fully included in the oil price.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency estimates that oil demand will reach its peak in 2040. However, he warned that the world would face a crisis of supply without adequate investment in new production.

The IEA said there would be 300 million electric vehicles on the road by 2040. These vehicles are expected to cut 3.3 million barrels of demand from the previous estimate of 2.5 million bpd in the recent World Energy Outlook.

IEA predicted that natural gas would surpass coal, the second largest energy source in the world by 2030. Global gas demand will increase by 1.6 percent per year to 2040 and today will be 45 percent higher. China, the world's largest oil and coal importer, will soon become the largest gas importer.

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