If the models of climate change are true, humanity is dragging itself – and the rest of life – with the World. Scientific satisfaction to control emissions and war climate change is beginning to have some impact, but not enough. So now we're making some tough decisions.
If you have not heard the terms ir solar geoengineering, and duy stratospheric aerosol injection “, you should probably get used to them. When all other governance and economic models fail to do so, they represent a scientific and technologically realistic plan to control climate change. This idea has been around for a while, but in the past it was very expensive.
Now, a new research paper on Environmental Research Letters analyzes the air, what it needs to spray sulphate into the stratosphere to cool the atmosphere. Two writers are Yale's Wake Smith and Harvard's Gernot Wagner. And once you pass your surprise once, if you feel anything, it offers well thought-out parameters for the entire business.
I ı A hypothetical distribution program that has been in existence for 15 years will be technically possible from an engineering perspective. “- Director of the Harvard Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Gernot Wagner.
First of all, let's solve a few myths. It's not about darkening the sun, bones or mind control. Nothing humanity can do to digest the Sun. Chemtrails are ignorant fire dreams, and mind control is just Chem whatever. Both Smith and Wagner are serious people and deserve attention.
Wagner is Director of the Solar Geoengineering Research Program of Harvard, and a research fellow and researcher at Harvard's Solar Energy Research Program, and author of the book ü Climate Shock Wag. Smith has an MBA and a career in commercial aviation and finance and writes about logistics. and solar radiation management and geo engineering costs. These two are well equipped to carry out this research.
What are we really talking about here?
Let us consider a world where scientists discover that our emissions are warming the world and people are too reluctant to make changes in their emissions. Our governance methods and our economic methods don't work. You don't have to imagine it because basically where we are.
Scientists are then boomed to try and depend on technology solutions, hoping that politics and the economy will eventually get it right. This leads us to two ideas: solar geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI).
The solar generator is also referred to as SR solar radiation management “(SRM). The idea here is to reflect some of the solar radiation back into space. SRM aims to increase the albedo or reflectivity of the world.
Some SRM methods recommend protecting and restoring the Earth's naturally reflective surfaces, such as sea ice, snow and glaciers. These would include major engineering projects and would be expensive. There is no guarantee that they will work.
The new study by Smith and Wagner focuses on another SRM: stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) spoken.
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection is focused around the idea of injecting sulfate into the atmosphere at a height of about 20 kilometers in the stratosphere. The reason that the SAI can meet most of the climate changes, is relatively inexpensive, can be quickly effective and can reverse its direct climatic effects. That sounds nice, but there are some drawbacks.
The early ideas in SAI suggested using artillery, existing aircraft or balloons to inject the sulphate or its precursors into the stratosphere. But each of them has their own problems. The new research focuses on developing new aircraft to deliver the sulfates to the stratosphere.
It's not easy to fly to the stratosphere 20 miles. It's not something we have to do just a few times, so we can use expensive rockets and eat the cost. A successful SAI project will be a multi-year project involving private aircraft fleets from all over the world.
In their study, Smith and Wagner examined the costs and development timelines of a fleet that could reduce the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing. The fleet would start small and grow over time and start operations in 15 years. They looked at the existing planes and concluded that none were practical. 15 years allow sufficient time to develop and test the necessary aircraft and to obtain a license.
In There is no combination of the required height and carrying capacity of an existing aircraft. Ve – Wake Smith, work as a co-author.
Continuous flight at an altitude of 20 km requires a private plane. The body and the wings need to be different from everything we have now and the engines need to be specialized. In order to carry out their work, several aircraft manufacturers, engine manufacturers, and other companies, such as Airbus, Atlas Air, Boeing, Bombardier, GE Motors, Gulfstream, Lockheed Martin, NASA, Near Space Company, Northrup Grumman, Rolls Royce Engines and others. .
They call their proposed aircraft SAIL: Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Lofter.
Two researchers are open about their motives. They do not make any judgments about using SAIL to fight against climate change. They just wanted to expose this idea and see what a realistic SAI program is like, what the timeline and activity might be.
The author of the study. Gernot Wagner says: “Although we have not made any judgments about the desirability of the IAC, a hypothetical program, which has been in existence for over 15 years and which is both ambiguous and ambitious, is technically possible in terms of engineering. In addition, the first 15 years on average between 2 to 2.5 billion dollars will be quite cheap. "
Other studies have concluded that the existing aircraft can be changed to combat climate change, but scientists have shown that this is not the case. Wake Smith, in a press release, said:, I've been involved in many studies to show that SAI-related engineering questions and modified existing aircraft can do the job. The opposite is revealed. Indeed, even if it is completely hypothetical parameters, it will take a completely new aircraft design to reasonably make the SAI. No existing aircraft has the required combination of height and carrying capacity. "
This new SAIL aircraft will have to carry a load of 25 tons up to a height of 20 km and continue its flight there. So how does this new plane look?
The aircraft itself will need larger wings, twice the size of existing aircraft, and twice the pushing force. IL For SAIL we have developed specifications for direct inputs from various aviation and engine companies. It is equivalent in weight to a large narrow body passenger plane. However, to maintain the level flight at 20 km, it is necessary to double the wing area of a plane of equivalent size and to double the thrust with four engines instead of two, Ancak he said.
According to the study, the body of SAIL seemed to be narrow and narrow, sized to fit a heavy but dense molten sulfur mass rather than the large volume and air required for passenger comfort. SAIL will therefore have a wider blade opening than its length. "
Engines would be modified versions of existing engines called ları low bypass Motor. Although these engines are available, they are not used because they are not efficient. They are performing other engines at these extreme altitudes.
The two researchers are beginning to start with 8 airplanes flying about 4,000 flights a year and more than 4000 each year, with more and more planes coming online. 15 years after the operation, the fleet would reach almost 1000 numbers. They would fly from bases across the globe along the latitudes 15 and 30 degrees north and south of the equator. The target is to inject ~ 0.1 Mt S within a year, then linearly increasing at a rate of ~ 0.1 Mt yr.
Smith and Wagner concluded that the SAIL programs would not be so expensive. Their analysis shows that the program will be approximately $ 2.25 billion a year for the first 15 years. This includes the design, testing and production of a new aircraft type, modification of existing engines and operating costs. This is not much compared to the US $ 240 billion that the US economy has lost in the last decade of climate change.
In a press release, Dr Wagner said: men Considering the potential benefits of halving the radially forced average increases from a certain date, these numbers call for the dedi incredible economy atif of solar energy engineering. Dozens of countries can finance such a program and the necessary technology is not particularly exotic. "
The ultimate goal of a SAIL program is to save time. He wouldn't solve our emission problem. SAIL is only a temporary reduction method. It does not reduce CO2 in the atmosphere and does not stop other effects of climate change, such as ocean acidification. It only reflects some sunlight back into space.
It's getting hard here. Suppose Wagner and Smith are correct, should we use SAIL to combat climate change?
There are some fears around the idea of technological climate change. Some organizations fear that developing such technology would allow a rogue regime to do so in secret. By eliminating this fear, the authors say it would be impossible to hide this flight activity in partner countries around the world.
I A global SAI program of the scale and nature discussed here can reasonably be expected to protect privacy. Even in one of the flight corridors in both hemispheres, even our one-year distribution program in the hypothesis requires 4000 flights of unusually high altitude by planes of aircraft size. This can be avoided by detecting too many aviation activities and after such detection. "
Some climate change activists are cautious about the SAI because they think it will create concerns about reducing emissions. They say we'll depend on it, and they're going to cause and excuse our greenhouse gas emissions. You can find these concerns explained and expanded in Geoengineering Monitor. They think that large companies involved in the extraction of fossil fuels will fund the geoengineering projects and will continue to do so as usual.
In any case, the use of high-altitude aircraft to combat climate change is for discussion at this point. There is an organ called the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Under the CBD, 193 countries signed a moratorium on geoengineering and decided that there should be a global mechanism for managing it.
However, the SAIL program is a framework that will not be operational until 15 years ago. 15 years is enough to develop a global mechanism for a geoengineering plan on climate change? One would.
We're moving ourselves into a corner. The longer we wait to take meaningful steps on emissions, the more drastic our measures will be. If we want to use SAIL to combat the effects of climate change, we have to overcome both our founder and our unfounded fears.
We've got ourselves into this and we're gonna have to get ourselves out of here.