Friday , December 3 2021

Trump offshoring stopped? It's hard to say.



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"Big Steel opens and renews factories all over the country. Automobile companies are flowing into the United States, including BMW, which has just announced a new major facility. The US is booming!", "The president tweeted this week.

Okay, maybe. But it's hard to say for sure, because it's coming out. offshoring – and "revitalization" is known as the reverse effect of bringing things back to a country – It is extremely difficult to measure with any precision.

When the Democrats come together to oppose the new signature of Trump for the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the Chinese leaders are dealing with a slow dance with Xi Jinping and European leaders on a series of commercial issues at the G20 summit, the answer is important. . Argentina.

What we know: Production Today, 11.5 million jobs in 2009 are backing up from the depths of the recession with approximately 12.8 million jobs today. This happened for a number of reasons, including the rise of oil and gas supply that provided cheap energy and the coming together of the unemployed who wanted to accept low-paid jobs. Employers also face more risks in long global supply chains and have shifted to a karşı just-in-time ler production strategy that enables mills to respond quickly to changing customer needs if they are on American soil.

We know, however, that the trade balance in goods – the difference between what we import and export – continues to expand under Trump. This amounted to $ 77.2 billion in October from $ 67.7 billion in early October. the largest gap in history. This means that American consumers and companies buy more materials from abroad, such as automobiles, in the United States.

Etic It's a two-way street, Amerikan says Scott Paul, president of the American Manufacturing Alliance, backed by the United Steelworkers union and producers. "We still have production You leave the US, but you're also reviving a little bit. "

There is only one source of data that clearly measures offshore: Trade Adjustment Assistance, federal support since 1975, when workers are out of business when they do business abroad, or who are open to workers who cut production due to competition from cheaper imports. The use of the program was spiked during recession and retreated to more normal levels.

However, this is still not an excellent benchmark, as this is how generous the fund is for the program and how much willing states are endorsing the applications. Since application data is sent with a delay, it is not very useful for real-time measurement. Moreover, he misses the shift of production to other countries gradually.

Sometimes it's easy to tell when a job is done, for example, in an oven and air conditioner manufacturer Carrier 2016, which will carry all the work of a factory in Indiana to Mexico – only partially, as a president, a reversed plan by Trump. . -elect.
GM employees will have business options - but they may not be the best
However, General Motors said it will close five North American facilities and three other factories around the world this week, because it has shrunk in favor of light trucks and SUVs.

Other companies have also reported similar demand patterns. For example, United Technologies is currently conducting operations in an aviation facility in Chula Vista, California, which will result in more than 300 jobs. The company says that the aircraft components built there since the 1950s are no longer sold.

"We couldn't find anything that could be applied in this region," says Stacey MacNeil, vice president of communications for UTC Aerospace Systems.

The union, which represents these employees, says it is hard to believe that a facility that employs more than 10,000 workers once was. Mexico's aviation industry explodes for almost 30 years.

Stadt Companies do it all the time, yapıy says Owen Herrnstadt, president of the International Association of Mechanical Engineers. "They leave the work out, invest in other places, get some work to the end of the programs – and then shut down the program by saying it's over, instead of investing in US facilities that can employ US workers in new programs."

Ohio Senator: Trump says he wants to help & # 39; Between closure of GM facilities

As part of efforts to withdraw US workers from the US with the revision of NAFTA, US negotiators will require at least 40% of imported vehicles from Mexico to be made by workers who work more than $ 16 per hour. a provision. . This can facilitate the difference in wage making it very attractive for automobile manufacturers to move production in the south of the border, but it will be very difficult to enforce.

. I think on the Mexican side, 39 I think, # it will be very difficult to implement what we haven't given so much,, says Gordon Hanson, an economics professor at the University of San Diego, California. .

So far, the Mexican side of the border doesn't seem to have slowed downshoring. Eduardo Saavedra is the vice president of business development in the Offshore Group, which mostly provides contract manufacturing in Mexico for US-based customers, and says businesses are continuing to grow only under Trump.

Medik We didn't talk to people who were interested in the rhetoric from the White House, Sa says Saavedra.

And, of course, there is another factor: American companies must react to other countries' reprisals.

In a survey conducted by IHS Markit in mid-October, 800 producers said respondents would average the new tariffs of the United States and the rising trade battle. More It is likely to make overseas production in the next two years. Exceptions? Metal ware and mechanical engineering firms.
Now there is evidence that the increase of offshore activity of US multinational corporations may actually be some evidence. raise America also employs net – but only light and too much work interruption along the way.
For this reason, labor-supported labor advocacy Good Jobs Nation pushes Trump to force the tender process, if they are producing outside the US for major federal contractors such as Unified Technology and Boeing.

Manufacturing experts say that in most cases, producers go abroad, because they cannot find enough workers to fill their jobs. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that there are 506,000 manufacturing jobs in the US in August.

S From the employer's point of view, there is a huge lack of workforce, in says Scott Jacobs, the manager of the Great Lakes Trade Harmony Help Center, who has been helping companies who suffer damage from importation. "One of the things that will really help manufacturers is a greater focus on trying to help communities or companies help communities develop programs for themselves."

And despite the passing of the tax cut package last year, the US has created gaps that reduce the tax on the sea tax, giving new incentives to companies, while significantly reducing the company rate. To find production outside the US.
Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University, who served as chief economist under President Barack Obama, could be conditioned on keeping these tax cuts in jobs in the United States. A bill brought by the Ohio Democratic As Sherrod Brown expands overseas, it would eliminate the sea tax deficit for car companies leaving the United States.

"We gave these companies a blank check, a corporate tax deduction that could have been used for every other thing." Says. "Why do we let them do this?"

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