For the past three years, the estimates of the situation in which the Argentine economy will grow again failed many times. No one is ever encouraged to record new projections on the stone. Low profile analysts agree that the country is stagnating for eight months at least until April. And it would start in the second quarter of next year, so hot, recovery. The conditions for this period are fulfilled, the continuation of the exchange rate stability, the decrease in the interest rates and the recovery of the purchasing power of the summer temperature.
In her preview of her arrival in G20, IMF director Christine Lagarde published her strongest estimate of what would happen to the local economy in 2019. "We will see a positive development of the program in the second quarter of 2019. April, May and June. Then the beginning of change should be seen. We should see a significant decline in inflation. "The government adheres to this vision," he said, noting that the Nicolás Dujovne team will start promising green shoots in March.
Experts consulted economic I agree that there is a good chance that the recovery will take place in the autumn, but still There are risks.
For Gustavo Reyes, who is an economist in the Mediterranean Foundation, we should not see this fact.Today the recession is more common after the start. In the second quarter, the decline was strong, but it was very evident by the drought. The negative impact of agriculture was no longer felt in the third quarter, but deepened trade and industry declines. And now the recession has spread to several sectors that are not as red as banks. With the rise of rates, the expansion of loans begins to fall.
We'll have to wait until the second quarter for the chance to change. Reyes distinguishes between "exogenous" healing factors and "endogenous" factors. Among the first The positive effect of harvest This year, revenge will be taken from the looting numbers in 2019. "But the key to obtain an endogenous change. To reduce economic stagnation, we must end the vicious cycle of high uncertainty, low consumption, devaluation and inflation expectations. "
In this context, Reyes, "the recession began to do the work," he stressed. a limit on inflation"An indicator of this" September's core inflation rate exceeded 7%, in October it was above 4% and is expected to reach 2.5% in November. The strong recession and the exchange rate, which continued until a week ago, are clearly two factors that will play favorably. we will have lower inflation. This is a necessary condition for reactivation, because in the event of a fall in inflation, devaluation expectations begin to decline. Without this, the interest rate is difficult to continue to fall. So they will stop losing salaries and start earning some at the end of the year. "
Reyes points out that this "optimistic scenario is not at risk". In particular, the economist talks about the slowdown that threatens the United States, China and the European Union. "Big blocks will be a year worse than 2019. But the positive thing is that Brazil and Chile will accelerate their growth."
For the work of Ferreres, "in the short term, even though they believe that the residual phase of greater sharpness lags behind, do not expect a generalized dynamism sectors that provide a sound improvement. Consulting director Fausto Spotorno said the recovery would depend on maintaining the competitive exchange rate, the performance of agriculture and the growth of Brazil.
These factors are added to the evolution of purchasing power. Guido Lorenzo, chief economist at the consulting LCG reorganization of fees may be. You are seeing the parities that are negotiated at around 45%, like the Trade, which is already the largest. If this is followed, it may be a place for improvement between the first and second quarters. In addition, it should not be forgotten that revenues such as incomes related to the Treasury will be indexed to inflation this year. At the macro level, though, this is not ideal, at least it does not allow real revenues to fall too much.
The good news came from the sectors that were under construction and trading. "On the investment side, may a little surprise as in construction, in sectors where profitability is expanded. The relationship between the dollar-based costs and the price per square meter is a significant attraction for investors, although there is a reduction in demand in the short-term. C Not only because of good harvest, but also the dynamism of industrial goods that we see this year. This may cause export of exported volume Be around 15% or 20%. "
However, the LCG economist points to this "2019 is not risk-free. On the one hand, there is a political uncertainty facing the elections, which can also give negative feedback that it creates less investment, which will lead to a further deterioration of activities. The second risk I see is, consistency “between monetary policy and 40% parity policies. The growth of the monetary base of 0% is a very contractionary policy. there is a certain discrepancy you have to see how it solved the macro. And the third thing is that in 2019, an external event or the same political uncertainty will be the result of a final capital flow. "
Federico Furiase from EcoGo stressed the economy "Will make ground in November The reopening of paritarites in December will begin to recover with the slowdown in inflation, the gradual lowering of the interest rate and the harvest of wheat. "
Furiase says that recovery will be slower in real wages and credits. ; The double zero of the financial and monetary regulation puts a ceiling at the rate of a paritar and a rate of interest. landslide. And we have seen that the Central Bank should reduce the rate and provide air for the economy without creating a new exchange rate that threatens inflation expectations. "
Even in the most optimistic scenario, it is almost impossible for 2019 to end in red. After a decline of 2.5% in GDP, 2018 will leave a significant statistical drift. Reyes will close by 1.5% next year. According to Furiase, "the average of the year will be difficult to fall, but with an average recovery rate of 3%, we will be able to reach the fourth quarter with a growth rate of 2% or 3% over the previous year," he said.
”I'm not this pessimist, Lor says Lorenzo. "We see a marginally marginal decline for 2019, which implies a growth between the points of the movement, which addresses the impact of friction."