Wednesday , October 20 2021

The dollar will be complicated for a 2019 approaching



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However, it should be clear that the current divergence in the financial market cannot exist forever, beyond how many weeks or months it can sustain. In other words, a calm dollar and a country risk of over 300/350 points – the highest level where debt can be placed in international markets – completely incompatible facts. That is, in order to think that time can continue to pass like this, the dollar is returning as a discrete behavior variable, although it is impossible to place new debts, the renewal of only the debt maturities is not only incompatible, but also a more extreme factor: the opposite country risk yesterday 724 It's closed. Therefore, there is a difference between the current level and the level at which the debt can be renewed in more than six months. This factor, which does not show any sign of significant improvement, will, on the contrary, destabilize the money market later. The months, which will continue until November, will not look like the headlines in newspapers, but at similar levels, far from the risk of the country's economy.

What then? What happens if the current dynamics of these two variables remain unchanged? What is the dollar and country risk? Most likely, if the first months of 2019 and the Monetary Fund's dollars are used to make payments, the country risk ratio will not have a great resistance to the level of approximation only to the round-trip probability. The credit markets, however, will begin to produce instability in the foreign exchange market at their high levels. And the instability with the Dollar, on the one hand, has quickly withdrawn, even though it has withdrawn the "base" of the Central Bank on the one hand, and on the other hand the inability to reduce interest rates significantly, despite the impossibility of reduction. Very strong inflation rate. Of course, only with great luck, it can be said that inflation rates between 2% and 3% per month can be maintained for months, which is visualized for December. It is worth mentioning that we have entered a period of calm which will only be conditional and short-lived.

And if we take into account that the government will be abolished, this makes sense – if the tax collection is not cheating – the business deficit of the Treasury in 2019 still suffers from the major financial shortages of the BCRA. In addition to the fall of the Undersecretariat of Treasury in addition to the increasing fiscal deficit, it will meet at 7.5% of GDP. It is highly unlikely to be able to unite in very low interest rates and in a calm and stable dollar without a clear and voluntary funding in the markets. In the 2019 elections, the markets will receive dollars of the body that led to the Chritine Lagarde to be used.

It's probably not going to let the Argentine economy out. Apparently, international markets have experienced the longest and longest bull market in history: the rising and rising Wall Street and interest rates for almost ten years are almost zero. This scenario begins to disappear in 2018, when productivity begins to rise and it shows clear signs that shares in Wall Street have begun to rise and reach a ceiling. It has been noted that the country's risk rates are far from being fully reduced, not only in Argentina but also in many other countries. It is likely that during 2019 there will be a few countries that do not have access to international credit markets. And given that Argentina is the most risky in comparison to current quotations, we will go to a 2019 that will have moments of greater uncertainty and increased risk. Now, all of this does not seem to have been sufficiently internalized by the authorities issuing more monetary rules, and they can suddenly place the floors, ceilings, qualification rules, goals and objectives in the archive. we have put pressure on the dollar market. It seems that the process of reducing interest rates and the possibility of the dollar being under control is now considered to be kontrol bought Faiz. and a snack on the tamer.

The proliferation of measures, which made the money market more complex, was designed for another time and another. You can almost tell me for another country. From 2020 onwards, Argentina is not taking into account the need for aggressive exit from the markets to buy dollars in the financial market in order to pay and not to default in an increasingly complex world. On the contrary, monetary rules which are worthy of obsessive neuroticism are formed. While these rules provide an advantage in the market for a few weeks, a very challenging rule is created.

Meanwhile, we are in December: the month with the highest liquidity of the year, the months that need the most cash, and the current accounts by the companies. It may not be noticed, but the sources of return to instability are now returning to the gestate, in a maze. It is clear that when it becomes visible with all its power, Argentina cannot have a consolidated fiscal deficit of only 7.5% of GDP in a world that not only finances but also does not stop. To be the source of the common financial bonanza.

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