Dollar headed for top flotation band. This trend can be emphasized this week and it is not possible for the Central Bank to take part in the Friday Liquidity Letters tenders. chose 61.75% to lower rates 0.26 points and almost exactly $ 50 billion, which would not be exactly fixed, but a good portion will be converted into dollars.
The real question will ask who will sell the dollar and what the price will be because of the very strong resurgence of Friday: $ 1.70 to $ 37.70 in wholesale sales and with a good amount of work. Within a week, the dollar rose to a fixed maturity within a month.
Banks and stock exchanges rose from $ 1.08 to $ 38.51 on Friday.
The market, even at these values, thinks. dollar is late. At the end of the year, there are $ 43 & # 39; There are people in the group.
The point is that it doesn't exceed the tape and this can be done without a complication that will prevent the Central Bank from interfering with the square. On the other hand, the market began to consider interest rates more than the dollar value.
The employer inflicts more damage than the active interest rate, ie, they owe more debt than debt that they borrowed for debt, which is 5.5% per month, rising by 16% at the end of the year and balancing at that level. This increase is equal to two and a half months to compensate for the exchange rate delay. But if the dollar rises and falls, the entrepreneur compensates for costs and export advantages. In addition, The entrepreneur runs something over $ 40 with the hypothesis of a dollar.. $ 37 & # 39; work is not possible and when you need to renew entries knows that the dollar will be above that value. Therefore, it is easier to keep the stability of the change easier than the bottom of the flotation band at heights.
We should not forget Argentina since monetary ceilings were implemented. Once again it was expensive in dollars.
The country receives wages from inflation and today interest rate and taxes are more important at this cost. The high dollar is a result of these two variables, because a minister must be at a, high return in level, as he says in the 1990s, in order for Argentina to be competitive.
Therefore, starting this week, it should not be surprising to see that the rise of the currency starts to search the upper band of the dollar. It is not in the hypothesis of any consultant to think about a chaos.
In addition, the outdoor environment brings negative winds. The fall of oil has put pressure on the currencies of emerging economies, which have led to a rise in Treasury bills, strengthening of the Dollar against other currencies, and an increase in interest rates in the Federal Reserve Bank in December. Decline against the United States currency.
And even if it may seem like a contradiction, what could reduce the negative changes in the world could be what happened in Argentina, the most volatile developing country. The mockery of fate is that he can leave the country. Positive signals if Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping weaken the commercial war This is turning the economic activity in the world. The planet will follow this meeting.
For now, Wall Street expresses pessimism and, in these circumstances, sees its actions being over-valued. In fact, the VIX, also called the "fear index", is the yellow alarm zone, close to 22, because it measures the volatility of the North American market. After 30 points you have an orange alert and the portfolio changes are starting and the safe harbor quest for your money.
The other problem in Argentina is the country risk. October elections are the biggest obstacle in front of the bonds that go beyond 2019 to attract buyers. For this Argentina, close to 700, is at the mercy of the IMFThe only lender he can trust.
The tools to be released from the crisis are very limited and depend on good harvest, good international prices and improved exchange rate parity.
Business balances close investors to the stock market. Losses are too big to think about investing in stocks.
On the other hand, There are more than $ 100 billion in dollars going to the plaza.. For some bonds, they do not want to have a highly retired portfolio, despite a monthly rate of 5% and a flat rate of 4.5% per month. As a matter of fact, the dollar rose to 4.87 a week, and in November the funds were saved from the profits.
Fixed-term funds are the largest owners of these deposits, and investors can withdraw at any time because they are not subject to deadlines.
Large companies are other supports. Obviously, the recent tender of the Liquidity Letters showed that the fixed conditions were not fully renewed and that the ahorrists and the big investors started to make their dollars. At the beginning of the week, they did it timidly. On the last day, the rise has not left any doubts about what the market is thinking.
The expiration of "transport trade" (saving money and transferring the profit to dollar) ended.