Friday , October 22 2021

The Central Bank presented the best balance in six years, but the concerns were worrying


Basically, the dollar movements, which were decisive in the 2018 economic and financial collapse, along with the liabilities in foreign currencies and liabilities, left the balance of the Central Bank, offset by the effect of "liquefaction" and the disappearance of Lebac.

According to Last Summary of Assets and Liabilities Center, updated to 30 November Leliq's stock reached $ 711.436.7 million. If you add the rest of Lebac, about $ 116,318 million and other issues BCRA debt securities amounted to 832,686.5 million pesos.

This amount represents 67.2% of all the money that the economy works. Monetary Basis (money in circulation, cancellation and deposit checks in current accounts), 1,238,890,7 million pesos. The monetary asset pledged to maintain this currency level until June 2019.

observing active Central balance sheet, Leliq and Lebac represent 42.8% of reserves International measures in terms of pesos were $ 1,946,453.9 million as of November 30 (USD 51,183 million with USD 38,0217 exchange rate).

As a result sudden devaluation Argentine peso in 2018, over 50% and the sale of reserves disarmament to trade From 25 April Destruction of strains, Level BCRA's paid debts on reserves 111% down on April 23rd On November 30th, 42.8%.

It should be noted that Lebac stock Reached April 23 1,377,767.4 million dollarsin front of International reserves of $ 1,238,723.8 million ($ 61.285 million at the exchange rate of $ 20.25 per dollar).

as debt stock in the entity's balance sheet, 60,000 million US Dollars, or 11% of GDPa foreign currency denominated assets with a high interest rate, Financial turbulence created in the marketwith a dollar doubling its value in five months 41 pesos September 28th.

The best balance since 2012

He got go back six years Finding such a low relationship between paid liabilities and reserves. According to Central Balance Sheet as of December 7, 2012 reservations Pezolarde reached international measures. US $ 220,707,3 million (USD 45,397 million with USD 4,9288 exchange rate) Securities issued by BCRA (Letters in local and foreign currency) added 96,312,4 million, 43,6% of these reserves.

Monetary authority, with the monetary policy plan implemented since October Guido Sandleris presidency Various factors supporting sustainability These obligations

"In recent months The balance of the Central Bank fell in terms of both GDP and international reserves.The starting point would provide a larger space for maneuvering to the new monetary policy, "the Center says.

Between April and September, the liabilities of the Argentinean Central Bank, including letters, notes and transitions, are set at 5.6% of GDP from 11.2% of GDP. While falling, the ratio to international reserves fell from 40% to 40%. percent.

Land This dynamic was first explained by Lebac's decline in demand for the non-banking private sector since the beginning of the financial turmoil in April and the Lebac stock disarmament program implemented by the Bank. As of August, if the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has the ratio to the International Reserves, the increase in the foreign exchange rate in this period has also been effective oran and summarizes the monetary assets.

The weakness of reserves

The panorama of the National Bank still offers many difficulties. With Interest rate below 60% In Pesos, the increase in liabilities is progressing at a rate faster than the value of the dollar as the balance sheet deteriorates.

On the other hand, the economy of Argentina needs recover current account surplus -Commercial and tourism and services – so the net income of the dollar combine reserves BCRA refers to the dependence on external credit as a real source and as a source of foreign currency.

International assets held by the Center today US $ 50,000 millionbut this composition contains IMF paymentsCan only be used to pay the debt, "Swap" with ChinaA credit from the Bank of Basel The remaining part of REPO banks and deposit foreign currency

Therefore, net international reserves Available reached US $ 14,771 million According to calculations up to 23 November Balanz Capital. This amount five-month imports barely meet.

"In October and November, BCRA does not participate in the foreign exchange market," Balanz said. Variations in reserves international two factors: IMF transfers and debt payments ".

" net reserves (liabilities discounted by private sector, multilateral organizations and REPO, loans supported by public bonds of banks). US $ 14,700 million fixed in November"said.

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