Buenos Aires Economic activity declined by 5.8% in September, driven by strong decreases in the trading sector and manufacturing industry, thus formalizing the second cycle of recession during the Mauricio Macri government.
The National Institute of Statistics and Counts (INDEC) reported that the monthly economic activity estimator (Emae) declined by 5.8% in September compared to the same month of 2017. The data shows serious scenarios of consumption and productive sectors. .
The second largest contraction in this year: the worst figure dropped by 6.8% in June. On this occasion, the red was announced with a profound decline in the agricultural sector after a historic drought.
But this time it is not the climate or the countryside, but the direct consequences of the economics of philosophy, the biggest bet of the productive sectors, to try to survive against the excessive interest rates and the bleeding of the economy that they face to finance themselves. Purchasing power that paralyzes consumption.
The official figures for September, which confirm that the most affected sectors are wholesale trade, retail and repair (-12.8%), manufacturing (-10.8%), and net taxes on subsidies, are indicative of this figure. – 10.1%), transport and communication (-4.6%) and hotels and restaurants (-4.2%), among others.
On the contrary, agriculture, animal husbandry, hunting and forestry conglomerate is 2.2% and performance among others, fishing (2.8%) and financial intermediation (2.7%).
Art Consider the negative impact of drought, the economic contraction responds to two factors: an increase in exchange rates and an acceleration of inflation. Reducing purchasing power in dollars and pesos reduced demand for durable goods and consumption, which led companies to minimize production, given the increased financial costs. stock In the context of depressing sales "concluded high, consulting Ecolatina.
. Especially in September, the sudden movements of the exchange rate and the expectations of a new agreement with the IMF have created uncertainty in the sovereignty by paralyzing the decision-making process of economic agents, “he says. .
With the red of September, the increase in economic activity increased by six months: 0.5% in April; 5.2% in May; In June, 6.8%; 2.7% in July and 1.9% in August. The two successive quarters in red are technically the basis of the stagnation.
It is the second decline of the economy in the Macri period. The previous occurred in 2016. This decline began in March and lasted for nine months, accidents reached 4.9 percent.
For now, economic activity expects more months with a contraction of 1.5% and special forecasts in red. Even the official augs show that the recession will continue until the first quarter of next year.
The Director of the Center for Economists and Economics Studies, Ferrera Fausto Spotorno, predicted that economic activity will fall again in October, but the decline could be lower than in September.
"You probably have a low October in October and December, but don't drop too much. And when you start playing with the harvest, until March, your economic activity may start to heal," he said. Spotorno, and ironically: "The liberation at this point in the 21st century is not raining."
Dollar jumped a peso in one day
It was the most important daily climb since September.
The exchange rate was $ 1.07 (2.8%) higher than Thursday's close and was $ 36.56 for sales in the retail market and $ 38.50 for the retail market. traded. The advance was surprising because it represents the most important daily increase since the end of September, according to operators.
In the wholesale market, where banks and big companies operate, the dollar won 1.10 cents this Friday and reached $ 37.6.
The original text of this article was published on our press release on 11/24/2018.