Wednesday , November 25 2020

Javier González Fraga: "Inflation will drop faster than rates"



The recovery of the economy reveals the main government officials, because Mauricio is the key to Macri's choice. Owner of Banco Nación, Javier González Fraga, accepted "As of the second quarter of 2019, it is thought that the resumption will start to grow since the beginning of the year, but the re-activation of the people will become more visible.

The economist thinks that kalk solid ın fundamentals have been given to get out of the crisis: ard Financial deficits are disappearing, red of current accounts will be less than $ 10,000 million next year and the bomb that Lebac will bomb will be eliminated. next month. "

González Fraga spoke to Infobae about the economic situation, as well as a group of journalists who talked about the challenges of Banco Nación. And the mandatory question was clear to strike today, which would affect public banking: "The bank negotiated an increase of 12% in November, indicating that we are not in a position to be held by state-owned banks in private banks. We have introduced two more increases of 5.4% and then a little over 11%. We do not agree that we need to give us the ability to arrange the special ones ın.

The head of the nation has justified his optimism about a few factors re-mobilizing: "Inflation will start to decline significantly since November, will be close to 2% from 3%. The recovery of wages will also begin and the dollar of the fine harvest will have the greatest impact on the inside. In this sense, he noted that the scenario of the coming months will fall much faster than the rates of inflation. Interest, because the center will not rush as in the past. "

The idea that inflation would fall more rapidly was due to the offer of up to 10% plus one UVA in one year loans. "We're getting adjusted funds based on inflation and loans, because the yield will be much higher," he explains.

Below are some passages from the dialogues of González Fraga regarding the perspectives of Banco Nación:

– What are the risks in which a positive scenario of economic recovery does not occur?

– Of course they do. There is a trade war between the US and China, regardless of the international interest rate or the situation in Brazil. And of course, the uncertainty of the election is getting worse. It's not a novelty that people are so polarized between Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner. And this will take a more important role than March or April. But I don't think there are many surprises with the dollar, because it's at a level that's more competitive than six months.

– Is the replacement of Lebac by Leliq dangerous to the Center?

– On the contrary, the thing is perfect. There, the former head of the Center had a very good vision. Luis Caputo. It was not possible that BCRA could not make Lebac receive small investors from not only Argentina but also abroad. It was a very dangerous situation. I don't blame it either Federico SturzeneggerBecause something was about the dollars that came at that moment. And it was necessary to sterilize the injected weights to stop the accumulated reserves. Leliq, on the other hand, is only in the hands of the banks.

– Is it true that BNA has lost its lending capacity?

– Partly yes. There are several aspects of this. One hand In the budget, our profit is determined to rise to 15,000 million pesos. In addition, the IMF asked the funds invested by the Treasury not to increase the lending capacity of the bank. And this is a significant change from what has always been done.

– Do you buy Leliq too much?

– On the contrary, we buy much less than the rest of the system. We prefer to continue lending to SMEs, we are increasing microcredit and we continue with our mortgage loans, albeit slower than before. We're trying to encourage production rather than doing business to put the middle.

– Why are fees so high for check discounts?

– In fact, we put all bank rates at the market level, but we couldn't get lower rates. In some cases, especially large companies, this effect may be felt, but has more to do with dealing with liquidity. Nevertheless, I would like to emphasize that we are the bank that led to an increase in credit. In the last three years we have had a rate of 9.5% to represent 16% of the total. In the case of mortgage loans, we represent 50% of everything that the financial system gives. The default value in this segment is minimum, only 50 credits from a total of 50,000. And half of them are divorced and temporarily stop paying.


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