Monday , June 27 2022

From the Lebac bomb to Leliq: a dynamite Central Bank?



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Basic function in a medium-sized developing country the central bank In line with the expansion of the real economy, the loan and the loan offer feed international reserves This payment and the local currency in which the loan is expressed Against the volatility of the global financial market. Stock market for domestic market and stock of credit and intervention reserves I'il run the outside stream.

Since the beginning of management The national government has gone wrong, signed by Commercial and financial expansion to a world in tensionFree movement of currencies and financial income Through instruments issued by the governing body and providing a positive real interest rate for the exchange rate evolution. High interest rate, free circulation of currencies and bulky financial income in dollars. If there is an explosive cocktail, especially in a world high protectionism, multilateralism crisis and restrictions on international liquidity.

The first president of BCRA is Sturzenegger, dedicated to expanding the letter of the Central Bank (LEBAC) in the open market levels exceeding money base. When the external crisis began, Caputo used his first IMF spending of $ 15,000 million to ease the bulk cancellation of his predecessor, LEBAC, and now Sandleris used half of the second payment of the multilateral agency. U.6 S 5.631 million Completing the payment of LEBACs outside the financial system. The rest of the letters were necessarily delivered to the banks and were liquidity letters or LELIQ.

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Government Celebrates the deactivation of the pump of financial instruments speculative, monetary policy 17.700 million dollars debt with the IMF in return a painful setting plus estimated loss of international reserves $ 10,000 million.

This round should in principle know whether the policy of the Central Bank, which promotes financial recovery and capital outflow, has been completed and secondly, If the stability between the floating bands is the stability.

I was told in previous columnsDespite the sanction of the Alliance's National Adjustment Budget, the IMF's board of directors was eligible for the extension of the original contract and a certain change of "pax". cannot recreate the special offer of foreign currency. Sandleris, who evaluated the behavior of international reserves, came to the board of directors with a USD 49.568 million share. It was $ 52,198 million until November 16th. The increase was US $ 2,630 million. However, if the second IMF payment of US $ 5,631 million is denied, Reserve loss at 38 business days was US $ 3,001 million. Capital drainage continues.

Let's see what is happening with the X-ray, the weight, the situation described in the table below:

Review of the policy implemented by the new BCRA authorities Double Zero PlanPrivate sector loans declined by -2.2%, while currency base fell by -6.7%. The restrictive monetary and credit policy deepens the ongoing stagnation.

In return, Liquidity Letters (LELIQ) replacing LEBACs increased by 110.9%At a rate of $ 355,460 million, the rates and final cuts, which started at a rate of about 73%, are 10 points below this rate. This change in the loans of the private sector due to high-rate liquidity letters in the banks' assets is financed by the fact that the fixed-rate deposits in the public sector increased by USD 190 billion 190 million and 24.7% in a few months. and a half

Despite the restriction of monetary policy, the growth of wider monetary expansion (M3) is announced at 5%. All weights are added to banks by letter and deposit document.

Sandleris not only money base and private loan but also Expands speculative financial instrumentsTo intensify the impact of this policy within the banking system. It does not give the market oran loose ğ pesos to pressure the international reserves, but makes ek papers ek at high rates that finance letter banks. It also forces the seizure of deposits at high rates. The papers are filled in the financial institutions, which are financed by deposits, and the amount of time they are offered in dollars and the interest rate offered.

There are no asyon monthly supercharges arasındaki with the LEBAC maturities that cause the market to be suspended, but there is an overlap in the tension between the interest rate / devaluation rate. Bank running can be very complicated.

The Central Bank has disabled the "LEBAC bomb", but reopens the "LELIQ bomb". The difference is that the second is in the banks.

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