Monday , December 6 2021

Dollar against the floor, a bonus for local IMF and ANSeS – 02/12/2018


The deadline agreed between tomorrow Government and Monetary Fund Thus, the Central Bank may reduce the benchmark interest rate to below 60% per annum.

The limit was determined by whether there were two consecutive months. Market Expectations Survey (REM)The result of the average of the estimates of the consultants indicates a decrease in the annual inflation forecasts. Will it be fulfilled?

Consultant Eco Go who directs Marina Dal Poggetto an ascension project the cost of living with a rate of 2.9% last month (5.4% in October) and 48% for the year, adding the highest since 1991.

In the same report, a magnifying glass is placed on the possible effects of these high figures on an economy with a high indexing rating and is still 50% increase in water tariff and 60% increase in gas for next year.

The counterweight of this inflationary "ball" dollar serenityLast week, the title rose by 3.5% against Thursday's $ 37.72, down 2% from the previous day and a slight uptick in the market on Monday. .

Weekly balance Guido SandlerisThe Head of the Center acknowledged that his aim was to have the peso market dried to contain anything that could not be foreseen in the stock market, and there is coincidence in the business world. prices were already $ 40. Even if the sales decline was strong last month, this position is reluctant to give. The worst is over?

An important answer was given Christine Lagardeeconomic situation "It will be difficult for the next three or four months, and then there will be a change."

The vision of the Monetary Fund holder is the same as that of the economists next. "Optimistic" In the months of April or May, the country starts to fall out of recession. Is that what it is?

This optimistic vision of the government is based on the entry of the dollar. wheat, corn and soybeans export And yet, despite the worldwide oil drop, Vaca Muerta can give very good news on gas exports.

The rest will depend on parity, and Sandleris will accelerate the lowering of interest rates in February. Of course, the Minister of Economy approved it with a stiffness. Nicolás DujovneWithin the framework of G20 meetings, ”First, the inflation should go down and then the prices will drop.“

But in the last two months, the evolution of deposits in the pesos in the banks will have to be closely monitored. Grew 20% and the indispensable value of the peace of the dollar.

Fixed conditions grew strongly from the fact that banks pay for protectors Rates between 45% and 53% and now we get about 61% of the annuities from the Central Bank to place pissos in the Liquidity Letters (Leliq). In this context, the rate of low rates is expected to be very moderate.

In the end, there was clear signal how the government will facepublic sector debts This could open the vision of a part of the market operators, who indicated that Argentina could not meet its debt commitments from 2020 onwards.

The case is ending Bonar 2018, ANSeS has US $ 3.500 million and he would win. What did the government do? What are usually done with the debts of public institutions with the Treasury: They are refinanced.

Two bonusesUp to 2020, up to 2020, US $ 2,300 million in pesos, up from 8% per annum, and the other pesos for US $ 20 million.

The issue is relevant, because according to the latest official statistics, the debt between public institutions can be renegotiated. the gross public debt reached US $ 327.169 million in June, almost 42%. A sign that should be considered in the midst of difficult news clouds about economic activity.

Source link