Monday , March 1 2021

10 reasons to explain the new rise of the dollar – Economy



In the wholesale circuit, the dollar rose 3.9% yesterday, closed at $ 39.05, and was on the verge of $ 40. Quote, markets accumulate in an increase of 7.9% in just one week. Several factors were combined to explain the awakening of North American money. The end of the month, the scope of companies, more demand for the future dollar, fewer offers from exporters, lower rates expectations, a country risk that does not lead to all, negative economic data, disturbing surveys, job interruptions and fiasco, Ámbito Financiero reported the newspaper.

Matutino outlined 10 reasons for the new rise of the dollar

1- More demand for the next dollar: The city's Friday breaks and suspicions that the G-20 summit will be operated on Thursday almost closed the closing of the month. Businesses surpassed $ 1.5 billion with a 60% rate for November, which is $ 39.50 & # 39; closed. The Central Bank intervened in the sale of $ 600 million.

2- The scope of banks and companies: Not much, but in the future. In order to reduce exposure in the local currency, as in recent days, foreign entities and companies have been charged at an estimated rate of up to 30% of their positions to close their year-end balances.

3- Reduced exporters: In the last days, only 130 million US dollars would be offered. Almost a quarter of normal volume. They predict that starting next week can be normalized by the start of wheat sales.

4- Expecting low interest rates: BCRA maintained the Leliq ratio, which was almost unchanged with an annual change of 61.24%, and predicted that inflation expectations could fall by 60% in the case of a fall for the second consecutive month. REM. The last survey will be known next week and the previous one had already shown a compression.

5- Increase in money supply: The last Lebac auction provided a monetary expansion of $ 122,234 million. The section was neutralized with Leliq along with Treasury bills. In the center, they estimate a net expansion of 82,000 million dollars due to the seasonal increase in demand for money. Nevertheless, although prudent, a monetary turnstile is expected and the dollar / rate change will be monitored.

6- Transfer of an Trade of Transport dönem: The rise of last week's dollar, a fixed period, or two months of rent of a letter. An incentive for close positions in a negative global framework for emerging markets, after recovering some of the year-end losses in October and early November.

7- Non-falling country risk: Argentina's government bonds continued to recover, and the yields of some species, such as AA25, exceeded 12.5% ​​in countries such as Belarus, Rwanda and Cameroon. The other side is that the country risk measured by EMNI + Argentina yesterday is 690 bps.

8 – Negative economic indicators: With INDEC's economic activity, the latest battery of indices has expanded the window of doubts about the shape of the letter that will have the output of the recession. As the ruling party will be a V, a few private economists and financial analysts rely more on the L direction.

9 – Negative political indicators: Especially after a few days abroad and the G20, the fiasco of the security operation for the final of Libertadores did not fall well. It was not helped to stop the aviation troops, which made the Airways' flights difficult, which measured the power of the transporters, which were announced today and that paralyzed trains, buses and metros from 4 to 7.

10- The recovery of Cristina de Kirchner in politics: Recent public opinion polls on the image of the main political leaders were concerned for the market, the disruption of Mauricio Macri and the final victory of the former president in Peronism's internal theory. For those who have to finance Argentina, they confirm that such a possibility constitutes the main fear.


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